Reading is one of three medium-sized towns for which travel surveys were undertaken in autumn 1962 to study the relationship between the amount of travel on a typical weekday and the demographic characteristics of the population. The reading survey was repeated in 1971 to provide a second set of matching data for testing the stability of trip generation relationships over the nine-year interval. Three different approaches are used to explain the generation of home-based trips in terms of demographic characteristics. The traditional multiple regression methods express zonal trip totals as a function of zonal characteristics. The more recent household classification methods provide a catalogue of characteristic mean trip rates for particular types of household, and household regression applies regression analysis to disaggregated household data. All three methods were applied to both sets of data. The results indicate that a considerable amount of stability existed between 1962 and 1971, giving a forecasting accuracy of a few per cent of the mean value. This is well within the 10 to 30 per cent accuracy of representation obtained for the main trip purposes and modes of travel for the base year. Zonal regression is not recommended for explaining trip generation below zone level. Household classification methods make better use of the essential variability of the disaggregated household survey data and household regression combines this advantage with increased ease of application. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting