This paper discusses ten recent Dutch transportation scenario studies in the transport field from a methodological point of view. These studies are: (1) `Come to terms with queues' (McKinsey); (2) `Travelling clean: towards a trend breach in passenger transport' (Peeters,PM); (3) `Choose for public transport: double public transport' (McKinsey); (4) `Better, more and further? Freight flows through the Rijnmond harbours (1995, 2000, 2010)' (Gemeentelijk Havenbedrijf Rotterdam); (5) `Traffic studies of infrastructure: characterization of the Second Transport Structure Plan' (Bovy,PHL); (6) `Evaluation of the Betuwelijn' (Knight Wendling); (7) `Travelling well: towards a trend breach in freight transport' (Peeters,PM); (8) `A visit to trends' (van Asseldonk,Y, Peeters,PM and Sombroek,C); (9) `Scenario study Rail 21' (NS); and (10) `Accessibility of the Dutch province of North Holland: three futures for 2040' (Visser,J and van Binsbergen,AJ). A set of judgement criteria has been applied which has been developed for the analysis of the ten studies. The paper concludes with a series of recommendations for designing transport scenarios.
Samenvatting