Computer modelling of toll roads has been the principal tool for predicting whether drivers will decide to use a tolled road facility. This paper broadly outlines some of the issues involved in demand forecasts for toll facilities highlighting areas of data input that can have significant influence on the accuracy of the demand/revenue forecasts. These areas include: land use and demographic forecasts; perceived and resource value of time; commercial vehicle modelling; speed flow curves; perception of toll levels; and the conversion to annual flows. Having regard to these areas of variability, new techniques were developed for recent demand forecasting for a toll road currently planned to bypass the eastern side of Sydney's central business district. The case study introduced a method for developing a synthetic daily flow profile based on `time of day' modelling to establish the level of diversion to the toll facility throughout the day. Based on this outcome, a method for conversion to annual revenue is presented. (A)
Samenvatting