This study investigates whether the current traffic safety policy in the Netherlands and the execution of this policy are sufficient enough to realize 25% less traffic casualties in the year 2000 than in 1985. The study assumes that the development in the number of traffic casualties in the Netherlands can best be described in relation to both car mobility and to traffic risk. The study develops two models for explaining the causes of traffic fatalities on both a national and on a regional level. The study describes and analyses the development in the national, provincial, and municipal (Amsterdam) traffic safety policy. It is concluded that the 25% reduction in the number of fatalities, of hospitalizations and of other injuries will not be realized in the year 2000. In the long term, a further traffic risk reduction can be expected, and consequently a decrease in the number of casualties. This can be expected, provided that all the administrative levels have adopted the preventive policy aimed at: (1) influencing the traffic participant; and (2) at improving the traffic safety in the spatial environment.
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