This report will be of interest to transit policy-makers, managers, planners, marketing professionals, and others interested in the effects of current trends (e.g., demographic, economic, social, land use, and transport policy) and trends expected over the next 15 years on current and future transit markets. Although many of these trends are not favourable to public transit, a number are identified that provide opportunities for maintaining current transit markets and creating new, expanded, or different transit markets. The report identifies 40 transit service concepts that appear to offer the most effective means of adjusting to these societal trends. During the past 30 to 40 years, the portion of urban trips carried by public transportation has declined. This decline has resulted largely from such factors as increasing suburbanisation, increases in real income and vehicle ownership, changes in family life styles and household composition, and demands for increasing mobility. Will the decline in transit ridership continue or do these factors create a potential for new transit riders? How must transit adjust its services to meet the demands of an ever-changing marketplace? Answers to such questions will be crucial to the future of transit. Demographic forces could produce dynamic new demands on transit. Conversely, there are some demographic changes that could result in relative stability in transit ridership. Other forces could alter the effectiveness of existing traditional fixed-route transit services. Some trends may be supportive; others may indicate the need to develop new concepts of service delivery and positioning strategies. For transit to be successful, the opportunities and threats generated by the marketplace must be understood. Public transit must develop a vision of its role in serving existing and potential markets and ensure that transit benefits the entire population. Most transit operators believe that the greatest benefit is the mobility provided to those who ride transit today — workers travelling to congested urban centers; transit-dependent groups (e.g., senior citizens, students, individuals with disabilities, and the economically disadvantaged); and discretionary travellers who choose transit as the best mode of travel. Traditional transit services, however, will be challenged increasingly by demographic changes, geographic trends, economic influences, technological advancements, and societal concerns and expectations. The variability and direction of change in these factors require a careful assessment of their effects on existing and potential transit users and their influences on the future of transit services. Under TCRP Project H-4B, research was undertaken by the Drachman Institute for Land and Regional Developmental Studies, The University of Arizona, to (1) identify the potential effects of anticipated demographic, geographic, economic, technological, and societal trends on today's transit ridership and services and (2) identify future transit markets resulting from these trends and the most appropriate services to address those marks. To achieve the project objectives, the researchers first identified current transit markets using various sources, including the 1990 U.S. Census, 1991 American Housing Survey, and 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Study. The researchers then identified projected trends potentially influencing travel. Trends discussed include industrial restructuring; a flexible labour force; work at home and telecommuting; women's labour force participation; growth of the ageing population, single-parent and single-adult households; suburbanisation; migration and immigration; decreasing population and employment densities; increasing downtown employment density; increasing density in older suburbs; family support relationships; perception of crime; division of household responsibilities; transit funding; relaxation of transportation control mandates; and flexibility of the use of federal transportation funding. An assessment of how these societal trends will probably influence current transit markets was then performed. In addition, potential markets being created by these trends are identified, along with potential service options to meet these emerging needs. Finally, a brief analysis of the equity and efficiency implications of implementing these service options is presented. (A)
Samenvatting