A computer-based model is presented which describes the urban system in the terms of the distributions of households, several types of employment and housing stock as well as flows on the transport network and generalized travel costs. The model is structured in such a way that the impacts on the previously mentioned characteristics of changes in public policy such as the locations of new basic employment, overseas migration policies, new investments in transport and land use zoning and servicing policies may be estimated. The model is incremental in nature and operates in five year time increments. Exogenously estimated growth in each of the activity sectors during each five year period is allocated to a spatial system as a function of the pattern of development at the beginning of the period and the public policies adopted during the period. The model is calibrated to the Toronto region for the 1966-1971 period and the forecasting ability of the model is partially tested against the residential information collected in the 1976 Census of Canada. The equations calibrated for each sub-model have good statistical qualities and provide useful insights into the mechanisms of growth and change in the region. The model is intended for use in regional scale strategic planning studies and not for use in the more detailed and shorter-run transport system studies. (A)
Samenvatting