Substitution is often mentioned as one of the possibilities for reducing the environmental impact of passenger transport. This paper quantifies the qualities of various Dutch passenger transport systems in 2000-2025. Four different system characteristics are taken into account: two individually relevant characteristics (costs and travel time) and two collectively relevant characteristics (energy use and space use). None of the systems included in the analysis has a favourable score on each of the four characteristics. Soft modes are characterised by long travel times and a high space use, although they are cheap and energy efficient. Motorised systems are faster, but more expensive and less energy efficient. The scores of the four characteristics are weighed and summed in order to summarise the four characteristics into one score. In this way, the bicycle and the train (or their combination) appear to be the best systems. The bicycle shows better scores on short distances, while the train is the optimal choice at longer distances. Possible future developments do not contradict this conclusion. The analysis presented uses four different scenarios with developments until 2025, and in each of these scenarios the train and bicycle are the best systems. (A)
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