The UK’s roads, railways and airports are some of the most congested in the world (Mills et al. 2011). In the past, countries including the UK have addressed such problems with additional infrastructure investment. But this strategy has its limits: land is finite and subject to competing uses, government resources are constrained, and study after study has shown that it is not possible to build one’s way out of congestion, because improved transport services entice more people to use those services. Innovate UK is looking at other strategies to alleviate congestion, such as managing demand, making better use of existing capacity, and encouraging shifts away from congested modes of travel. Essentially, the goal is to make the existing transport system more efficient and effective. One way to approach this problem is through technology. Technologies could help address all three of these possible strategies. For example, virtual presence may be an appropriate substitute for some types of journey, thus reducing overall travel demand. Advanced manufacturing methods, like 3D printing, could create consumer products closer to their potential markets, thus reducing shipping distances. With regard to capacity, ride- or load-sharing apps could help fill empty passenger seats in cars or unutilised space in lorries. And to encourage mode shifts, instead of trying to push people away from already crowded modes, we need to lure them away with innovative strategies and ensure that transfers across modes are seamless. This study was commissioned to explore how different technologies might address travel demand in the future. The focus is on travel in 2035. Any technology that will be widely available in 2035 is most likely to already be under development. Consequently, radically new technologies are not considered, but rather we focus on technologies that are in development currently, but that are not yet commercially viable, or that may combined with other technologies to create new uses, or those that are currently prohibitively expensive but may become more affordable in the future. From a long-list of over 60 technologies, six were identified that could have a substantial impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of the transport network, by influencing travel demand, increasing the capacity of the transport network, or by improving the productivity of travellers. These are: Autonomous vehicles (AVs): a field of technologies that, in their fullest expression, will allow vehicles to sense their environment and navigate without human input. There may also be more limited options in which vehicles could self-navigate only in certain environments or certain circumstances; such vehicles would still occasionally require human drivers. Next-generation ICT connectivity / telecommuting / telehealth: These three initially separate technologies were merged and considered as one broad group. Next-generation connectivity denotes a range of telecommunications technologies that improve bandwidth, network availability and download/upload speeds for wireless communication. Telecommuting is the ability of an employee to work remotely without needing to be physically present at a workplace. Telehealth is the remote delivery of health-related services, ranging from a simple GP consultation over the phone through to remote-controlled robotic surgery. User apps / Big Data / intelligent processing: These technologies were merged and considered as one broad group. User apps include personalisation (such as voice and facial recognition) that provides individuals with new ways to access and visualise data to inform transport decisions. This could also include wearable technology, such as ‘smart’ watches. Big Data refers to the growing generation and collation of vast amounts of data, with the sheer volume presenting novel challenges and opportunities in terms of analysis, storage and visualisation. Intelligent processing includes new, ‘smart’ ways of processing and leveraging this data in future. Advanced manufacturing (including 3D printing): Advanced manufacturing comprises a range of novel technologies to improve manufacturing processes. These include the use of additive manufacturing (also known as 3D printing), robotics, novel materials (e.g. bio, nano, composite, smart), and other advanced equipment (e.g. lasers, plasma, waterjet). It also includes novel methods, digital tools, rapid prototyping and synthetic environments (e.g. virtual or augmented reality) to aid design and production processes. Internet of Things: The Internet of Things (IoT) is a network of physical objects capable of detecting and communicating information between each other through the use of embedded chips, sensors and connectivity. It creates a pervasive and self-organising network of identifiable physical objects, such as ‘smart’ meters, wearable technology or domestic appliances, which can then transfer data between each other. Novel materials and embedded sensors in infrastructure: This refers to a range of advances in materials science and production techniques. Self-healing materials, for example, could automatically repair ruptures or abrasions in road surfaces, and embedded sensors in roads, rails or runways could provide continuous self-monitoring of the need for maintenance. We deliberately excluded fuel and vehicle technologies whose main purpose is to reduce emissions or fuel consumption. This is not to say they are not important — they obviously are, given the sizable contributions of the transport sector to environmental concerns including climate change — but simply that these technologies do not directly influence the effectiveness and efficiency of the network. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting