In an iterative process with the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, Railned has formulated prognostications for the train transportation (passengers) in 2020. In the early stages a rough estimate is made of transportation growth with different scenarios. Afterwards, Railned made detail prognostications (based on basic principles) with the national transport simulating model (LMS). Because of this, the prognostications became consistent with the new national transport policy plan (NVVP). Specific factors of influence were uncertain or could not be calculated with the LMS. These factors were calculated with an adapted method. In this way, Railned made prognostications of train transportation, which match with the basic principles of environment, market forces for the railways and NVVP policy. The results show a national growth of about +85% between 1995 and 2020. Important in relation with accessibility is the growth of train transportation in the morning rush hours to the four big cities (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, and Utrecht). This growth is between +100 and +170 %. The specific pull factors 'more trains' and 'shorter travelling time in the train' are responsible for only 6 to 8% of the transportation in the rush hours in 2020. Finally, the ranges were explored with a sensitivity analysis. (A) For related work see ITRD E206714. For the covering abstract of the conference see ITRD E206647.
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