This paper briefly describes the results of a study into 'a trend breach scenario' for freight traffic. This scenario for 2015 describes what freight traffic will look like, when it has to comply with stringent environmental stipulations such as 82% less nitrogen oxide emissions, 50% less energy consumption. The starting point was the expected transport volume for 2015 from the Dutch Central Planning Bureau (CPB) 'European renaissance' scenario called 'Basic scenario 2015'. In the 'trend breach scenario' three options for reducing the burdening of the environment were applied: (1) 'Green technology': technical improvements on cars and infrastructure; (2) 'Green logistics': logistical optimalization; and (3) 'Green transport': combined road-rail and road-water transport. Overall, the three options appeared to have the same effect. The preconditions were found to be not completely attainable, yet. It would be necessary to tackle also the transport volume. This can be achieved by changing the environmental organization of production and distribution, through which the distances can be shortened.The ultimate option is to reduce production and consumption volume. In the pursuit of a 'sustainable' society, this does not only apply to freight traffic but also to other sectors. Beforehand, its effect on transport volume is unclear.
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