Auto gas price rises have been cited as a major recent driver of transit ridership growth. Research in 2007 established that for every 10% increase in gas prices, US transit demand has increased by 1.2%, a cross elasticity of demand to gas prices (e) of 0.12. Results also showed much higher effects on US light rail systems (e= 0.27 to 0.38) for heavy rail (e=0.17) but low sensitivity for bus (e=0.04). In Australia gas price impacts on ridership have been larger (e=0.22) due to higher gas prices (20%-30% higher than US prices). Recent research demonstrates significant impacts on low income travelers and links between increased gas prices, rising home loan interest rates and ridership growth. This paper summarizes the results of Australian research to establish the impacts of both auto gas prices and home loan interest rates on transit demand. The research disaggregates impacts by individual transit mode (rail, BRT and bus), service group and time period to explore causal factors. The research relates Australian findings to the US trends. Findings show that housing affordability is a critical influence on interest rate influences which might be relevant to the US. Low values for e in US bus systems may be explained by non-commute and low income ridership features of US bus systems. High values of (e) were found for high quality transit including Australian Rail/ BRT which correlates with high values for US rail. Longer distance travel was also associated with higher gas price ridership effects.
Samenvatting