The German system of diagnosis for traffic offenders was founded in the 1950s, and combined with courses for their rehabilitation in the 1970s. This paper presents a study of this system and especially of its evaluation of the effectiveness of its medico-psychological assessment. In this assessment, a physician and psychologist cooperate as an inter-disciplinary team, and a medical survey and psychological examination are conducted. The study examined the data and results of over 3000 drivers under the influence of drink and over 4000 with many demerit points. The recidivism rates of offending drivers were investigated, especially those with at least 18 demerit points. The analysis of predictors for the driving examination result confirmed the important role of six specific questions about drivers as decision criteria. It was found that the German system achieves a moderate reduction of relapse rates, so that it substantially increases traffic safety. A computerised expert system, based only on statistics, cannot be recommended as a method of classifying drivers; qualified psychologists are needed. The predictors cannot be weighted correctly, because people with a high risk of relapse cannot have their licence regranted, for legal and ethical reasons.
Samenvatting