Previous reports have described a theoretical model based on random utility theory for the distribution of journeys to work for a given set of homes and workplaces, and an application of the model using 1971 census data for the Manchester area. The present report describes a second application which uses data from a household survey conducted in 1975 in the metropolitan county of Tyne and Wear. The survey included details of household income, and the report describes how average salaries for jobs located at representative points throughout the study area are estimated from these. It is found that these estimates are far more variable than can be explained directly by the theoretical model. Information from another source on how property values vary with location is found to be in reasonable agreement with the model's estimates. The model is then used to simulate the medium-term effects of changing travel costs on the pattern of work journeys. For example, it is estimated that a uniform 1.00 per cent increase in the cost of travel would increase expenditure on work journeys by 0.36 per cent and reduce travel by 0.64 per cent; it would reduce consumer surplus by 1.00 per cent of total travel expenditure. When alternative policies for urban redevelopment are studied it is predicted that consumer surplus would increase if homes or jobs were relocated nearer the city centre. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting