The economic outlook for transit indicates that the current scarcity both of operating and capital dollars will continue, and perhaps worsen. For example, many transit funding sources are growing at rates less than the inflation rate. Improving vehicle replacement strategies is one way to realize capital and operating cost savings. Faced with a planned vehicle replacement shortfall of $220 million over 10 years, the los angeles county transportation commission in conjunction with 13 los angeles county transit operators conducted a study to develop cost-effective vehicle replacement guidelines. The study efforts, which built on substantive prior nationwide capital replacement research, produced a simple yet effective means for evaluating cost impacts of alternative vehicle replacement schedules. The vehicle replacement methodology, which was developed comprehensively, incorporated vehicle procurement strategy, routine maintenance practices, and vehicle subsystem rebuild planning in the replacement decision. The vehicle replacement methodology and its associated data reasonably reflected the experience of the los angeles county operators. Cost savings could be identified in excess of $117 million in fy 1989 dollars over the next 10 years. This paper appears in transportation research record no. 1266, Urban public transportation research1990.
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