September 1996 the Dutch National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (Dutch abbreviation: RIVM) published the second National Environmental Balance (MB96). The MB96 quantifies the environmental quality for the period 1980-1995 that is (partly) the result of the environmental policy. MB96 focuses on the period 1994-1995. This report is the background document for the transport sector in the MB96. The main conclusions are: (a) Compared to 1994 car use grew by 1% in 1995 and the use of lorries by 7%; (b) Compared to 1994 real levies on fuels decreased by 1.5% in 1995, so it is not expected that the levy policy had any influence on a lower car use level in 1995. In current prices the levies remained constant in 1995; (c) Emissions of CO2 by road transport grew by 3%. For 1995 policy targets for the emissions of CO2 and NO, of road transport were not met. For volatile organic compounds (VOC) the targets for 1995 were met. In 1985-1995 environmental policy measures had effect on emissions of NOx, VOC, CO and lead: emission of these substances by road transport grew less than the use of cars and lorries; (d) For the first National Environmental Balance (MB95) a method was developed to estimate the effects of environmental policy (the so called `historic policy analysis'). In this document this method is evaluated. The main conclusion is that the method is sound when the order of calculating the effects measurements is clearly motivated; (e) Energy use of road traffic grew by 3% in 1995. About 60% of the energy use of road traffic is caused by car use. Therefore, the development of car energy use in the period 1982-1994 was analysed using the historic policy analysis (data for 1995 were not available on time for this analysis). Car energy use grew by about 22% in the period 1982-1994. Efficiency improvement and shift in fuel mix had a positive effect on energy use. On the other hand increase in average car weight had a negative effect on energy use; and (f) In the period 1985-1993 Dutch energy use and emissions of road traffic grew less compared to the energy use and emissions in Western-Germany, Belgium, United Kingdom and Denmark, mainly because of the Dutch pricing policy. The exception are the SO2 emissions. (A)
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