September 1997 the Dutch National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (Dutch abbreviation: RIVM) published the third National Environmental Balance (MB97). The MB97 quantifies the environmental quality for the period 1980-1996 that is (partly) the result of the environmental policy. This report is the background document for the transport sector in the MB97. The main conclusions are: (a) In the period 1986-1996 the increase in car use was 124 (index 1986=100). The aim of Dutch policy is a maximum growth of 135 index points for the period 19862010. It is concluded that in the first ten year of the period 1986-2010 about 70% of the permitted growth was realised; (b) The use of lorries grew by 36% in the period 1986-1996. The aim of Dutch policy is a maximum growth of 40% for the period 1986-2010; (c) Dutch environmental policy did not result in a decrease or stabilisation Of CO2-emissions of road transport in 1996. Price policy has had some effect: if in the period 1990-1996 fuel taxes would not have been increased, the CO2-emissions of cars would have been approximately 7% higher; (d) Dutch environmental policy has resulted in lower emissions of NOx, SO2, HC, benzene, CO, lead and PMI10 of road transport in 1996 compared to the levels in 1986; (e) The effect of the environmental policy of Dutch provinces in the period 1986-1996 was relatively modest for the sector traffic and transport. The policy resulted in maximum 1% less growth of car traffic in this period and a few percents less noise hindered areas (in square kilometres); and (f) In the Netherlands two methods are used to calculate CO2-emissions for the sector traffic and transport. One is based on energy-use on Dutch territory, the other is based on fuel sales for inland use (the `IPCC' method). It is concluded that the IPCC method is not suitable for evaluation of Dutch environmental policy aimed at decreasing CO2-emissions, because there is no direct link between the development of the CO2-emissions and the development of fuel sales for inland use. (A)
Samenvatting