Road safety effects in 2020 of measures in relation with the safety of passenger cars; Estimated effects of primary, secondary and tertiary safety measures. This report is a background document to the Road Safety Outlook 2020 (Wesemann & Weijermars, 2011). This outlook makes a prognosis of the road safety level in the Netherlands for an integral implementation of the present Strategic Plan for Road Safety 2008-2020 (SPV). First a reference prognosis was made: an estimate of the development of the numbers of road casualties if road safety policy from the period 1995-2009 were to be continued. It is likely, however, that the risk will develop differently in the future than it has done according to the extrapolation of the developments until now. This can, for example, be caused by the implementation of ‘new measures’ from the SPV that are expected to have extra effect, but also by ‘current measures’ that may be expected to have less or, rather, more effect on road safety in the future; see the Strategic Plan for Road Safety. The initial reference prognosis is adjusted for this kind of developments in the main report (Wesemann & Weijermars, 2011). The present report discusses the changes concerning the safety of passenger cars. Next, the consequences of these changes for the numbers of fatalities and serious road injuries until 2020 are calculated. A different background document to the Road Safety Outlook 2020 does the same for measures in relation with enforcement and education.
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