Road safety forecasts for 2020 and 2030; Estimate of the expected numbers of fatalities and serious road injuries. The purpose of this study is to draw up outlooks to examine whether the target of a maximum of 500 fatalities and 10 600 serious road injuries in 2020 is feasible with the current and planned road safety policy. In addition to an outlook for 2020, we have also made on outlook for the number of fatalities and serious road injuries in 2030. The outlooks have been made in two steps: 1. Multiplication of expected risk and expected mobility. The risks in 2020 and 2030 have been estimated based on extrapolation of risk developments in the past. 2. Modification of the forecast in step 1 for new developments, new road safety measures and other changes in road safety policy that affect road safety development. SWOV developed a model for the extrapolations of risks. This model describes the risk development for different groups of road users —based on a combination of age and type of conflict - during a reference period and predicts the risks in the years for which the forecasts are made, 2020 and 2030. In this report the reference periods used are 1995-2014 for fatalities and 1995-2013 for serious road injuries. Multiplication of the risks by available mobility and population forecasts results in the numbers of fatalities and serious road injuries for each sub group. The numbers of the different subgroups were totalled to determine the total numbers of fatalities and serious road injuries. For the expected mobility in 2020 the data in the Nationale Energieverkenning (National Energy Outlook) was used, the mobility forecasts for 2030 are based on the new Welfare, Prosperity and Quality of the Living Environment study and were drawn up in consultation with the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and the Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (KiM). The method was adapted slightly to make the forecasts for serious road injuries. After 2009 it has not been possible to stratify by type of conflict because the registration rate in the police register is too low. Based on the data per conflict type before 2010 and the total numbers of serious road injuries in the following years, the risk development during the period 1995- 2013 was estimated simultaneously for all subgroups and extrapolated for 2020 and 2030. Furthermore, the risk for various groups of cyclists shows a sharp increase between 2006 and 2010. Due to lack of data, the cause of this increase cannot be investigated. This makes it difficult to predict how risk will develop for these groups. This outlook presents two possible developments for bicycle crashes, both being described using a model. Both models include an intervention (=increase) between 2006 and 2010. In one model the increase in risk is temporary and does not last, in the other model the increase in risk is permanent. Extrapolation of risk requires the assumption that past developments will continue in the future. This is not always the case, for example when new measures are taken or when new developments occur. The forecasts that are the result of step 1 are therefore adapted for such (policy) changes whenever this is possible. The forecast has been adapted for the following (policy)changes: • Vehicle safety: vehicle automation, support of the driving task, ESC, DRL, passive road safety; • Behaviour: failure of further improvement of drink-driving and seatbelt use; • Improvement cycling safety as a result of the local safe cycling approach and supportive measures; • Infrastructure: saturation 30 and 60km/h zones and possible cuts on infrastructural measures.. The effect of a new measure or development is estimated by multiplying the expected effectiveness of the measure or development and the expected penetration rate and the size of the target group the measure is intended for. Modifications as a result of policy changes or changes in other developments are determined as the difference between the effects of two penetration rates: the expected actual penetration rates in 2020 and 2030 and the penetration rate that will result from unchanged continuation of present policy. For some, potentially very relevant, developments/measures it is very difficult to make an estimate of the effects in 2020 and in 2030. In those cases scenarios were used. For a number of other possible developments insufficient knowledge or information was available to apply a modification. The forecast could, for example, not be subjected to meaningful modification for a possible change of risk due to a large (or not so large) growth in the use of electric bikes and speed pedelecs. The number of fatalities is expected to continue declining in the coming years. The expected number of fatalities in 2020 is approximately equal to the target maximum of 500 fatalities. The uncertainty in the outlook for 2030 is largely determined by uncertainties regarding developments in the field of driver assistance and vehicle automation. Also in future years, the number of serious road injuries is expected to develop less favourably than the number of fatalities. Given that the expected number of serious road injuries in 2020 is considerably higher than the maximum target of more than 10,600 serious road injuries, it is highly unlikely the target for serious road injuries will be met with ongoing and proposed policy. It is then uncertain whether the number of serious road injuries will decline any further between 2020 and 2030, and until now it seems that the number of serious road injuries in 2030 will also be higher than 10,600. Further analysis of the main modes of transport shows that the number of casualties among car occupants develops more favourably than the number of cycling casualties. For car occupants both the number of fatalities and the number of serious road injuries are expected to decrease during the next 15 years. For cyclists the number of fatalities is also expected to decrease, but less strongly than for car occupants. Also in the coming years the number of seriously injured cyclists will fail to show a downward trend. Most cyclists are injured in crashes not involving a motor vehicle. The underlying cause is the increasing mobility of elderly cyclists who have a relatively high risk. Forecasts have also been made for serious road injuries among (light) moped riders, although these forecasts have some limitations. From these forecasts, we can cautiously conclude that between 2020 and 2030 the number of serious road injuries among (light) moped riders will increase rather than decrease. Regarding age, the over-60s are a focus group. In 2030, more than half of the fatalities and roughly a third of the serious road injuries are expected to be 60 years or older. The proportion of people older than 60 in the total number of serious road injuries does not seem to be increasing noticeably, due to a decline in the risk of crashes not involving a motor vehicle for those older than 66. This reduction in risk partly offsets the increase in bicycle mobility for this group. The forecasts lead to the conclusion that the target for fatalities may be achieved, but it is also possible that the target is not quite met. The target for serious road injuries will most probably not be met with the ongoing and proposed policies. In 2030, the number of serious road injuries is expected to still be significantly higher than 10 600.
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