Road Safety Outlook 2020: effects of extra measures : effect estimates for the readjustment of the Road Safety Strategic Plan. SWOV carried out the Road Safety Outlook 2020 which in several steps makes an estimate of the approximate number of road traffic casualties in 2020, how many casualties can be saved with intended policy, and which measures could possible result in further casualty reduction. This report is the third phase of the outlook. Also on basis of the forecasts made in the first phase of the outlook, the Minister of Infrastructure and the Environment, together with its administrative partners, decided that the Road Safety Strategic Plan needed readjustment. This readjustment was laid down in the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment’s Policy Stimulus Road Safety (2012). SWOV was asked to calculate the road safety effects of the activities which are proposed in the Policy Stimulus. For a (convenient) possibility of achieving the 2020 targets, an extra 0 — 100 road fatalities and 6,000 — 8,500 serious road injuries must be saved in comparison with the reductions proposed in the present Road Safety Strategic Plan. The estimates in the present report indicate that is unlikely that these extra reductions will be achieved by carrying out the activities proposed in the Policy Stimulus Road Safety. The reduction of the serious road injuries in particular will be insufficient with the proposed activities. Whether the target for road fatalities will be achieved with the activities that are proposed will depend on the scenarios for mobility development and possible financial cuts in relation with infrastructure that have been used in the forecast.
Samenvatting