The research project titled "Urbanisation Models" deals with the relation between future urbanisation (between 2005 and 2030) and the growth of mobility. Its scope is the Dutch region of Noord-Brabant. The research is highly quantitative. In five different urbanisation models the future needs for residential and working areas have been distributed in different ways. Using a traffic forecasting model the effects on the mobility of persons have been calculated. The research was initiated in the Provincial Traffic and Transportation Plan (PVVP, May 1998) of Noord-Brabant. In constructing a package of policy measures, more understanding was needed of the possibility for using spatial policy (especially because of the provincial authorities in this field of policy) to restrain (car)mobility. The research results show that varying only spatial patterns causes not more than a difference of plus/minus two percentage points between the modal split in the different urbanisation models. A clearer modal shift is shown if one of the urbanisation models however is extended with several traffic measures: road pricing, sustainable road safety measures, intensified parking policies, introduction of light rail, and improvement of bicycle and public transport systems. The combination of a concentrated urbanisation model with a number of traffic and transportation measures can be effective in dealing with mobility problems. (A)
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