This report reviews previous studies that have examined the relationship between economic performance and road safety. Most of the studies use the rate of unemployment as a principal indicator of economic performance and find that when unemployment increases, road safety improves, i.e. there is a reduction in the number of road crash fatalities and injuries. Studies that have investigated the relationship between economic performance and safety for different groups of the population find that the reductions in traffic fatalities during economic downturns tend to be largest among young people. The research indicates three main mechanisms favourable to road safety during downturns: • Economic downturns are associated with less growth in traffic or a decline in traffic volumes. • Economic downturns are associated with a disproportionate reduction in the exposure of high-risk groups in traffic; in particular unemployment tends to be higher among young people than people in other age groups. • Reductions in disposable income may be associated with more cautious road user behaviour, such as less drinking and driving, lower speed to save fuel, fewer holiday trips. The financial crisis of 2007-08 and the subsequent severe economic downturn have been accompanied by marked falls in annual numbers of road deaths in most OECD countries — larger falls than countries had become accustomed to before. Most OECD countries have reached their lowest level of road fatalities ever recorded, whether in absolute numbers or in rate per 100 000 inhabitants. In 2012, five countries had a mortality rate below 3. In most OECD countries by 2008, road safety policies aiming to reduce death and injury on the roads and the implementation of these policies had become much more systematic than in earlier decades. This makes it more important than in earlier decades to try to understand how much of the accelerated reduction in numbers of deaths during the downturn that began in 2008 was attributable to the changed economic conditions. It is important to understand what the mechanisms for the accelerated reduction were and to what extent the acceleration may be reversed as economic development recovers from the effects of the crisis. The six studies in the report are accompanied by an overview, which sets out concisely the resulting state of knowledge and its implications for interpretation of recent and current national annual numbers of road deaths in the monitoring and evaluation of past and current road safety policies and their future development. According to extensive statistical analysis by Rune Elvik of data for 14 OECD countries over the period 1970-2010, the increase in unemployment in those countries during 2009 and 2010 is estimated to have contributed about 4 850 to the reduction of 7 467 (i.e. about two-thirds), that took place in the number of traffic fatalities in those countries during these two years. The remainder of the reduction is broadly consistent with a continuation of a long-term trend that was apparent before the financial crisis. A number of ways in which changes in economic development may lead to changes in road safety have been identified. These can be summarised in terms of what may happen when GDP per inhabitant falls (or at least rises noticeably more slowly than has been customary) and unemployment rises. Some consequential changes that could improve road safety are: • Fewer vehicle-kilometres may be travelled. • Some of the vehicle-kilometres may be driven more safely. • The proportion driven by young adults may be smaller. The research indicates that favourable influences like these outweigh others that might worsen road safety, such as: • Some vehicle-km may be driven less safely. • Fewer new vehicles may be bought and older ones may remain in use for longer. • Less may be spent on vehicle maintenance or on safety features in vehicles. • Less may be invested by governments in road safety engineering. The reviews make clear the importance of the distinction between the effects of changes in the number of vehicle-kms travelled and those of changes in the risk of deaths per vehicle-km travelled. The former reflect changes in activity leading to changes in amounts of vehicle use, and the latter reflect changes in road user behaviour, in the composition of traffic and in spending on new, safer cars, thus making roads safer. While in 2015 it is expected that the worst of the economic crisis is behind us, policy makers need to anticipate the consequences of economic recovery on the volume of traffic and driving behaviour. As shown through the six studies included in this report, the very good performances obtained in most OECD countries since 2008 are not solely the fruit of determined road safety policies. In order to consolidate the good road safety results obtained in the past few years, sound road safety policies need to be intensified, supported by modelling to identify areas where future gains in terms of fatality and serious injury reductions can be made. In particular, efforts will be needed to intensify enforcement in relation to drink driving, speeding and the use of protective equipment (such as seat belts or helmets). In addition, there is a need for further investment in the maintenance of the existing infrastructure and development of (low-cost) safety measures, which could be implemented quickly. Finally, a systematic and regular monitoring and publication of key safety performance indicators (using an early-warning signal) will assist policy makers to intervene if performance declines. (Author/publisher)
Samenvatting